The Great Escape

[bring back the cowshed!]

A very good win. I don't care if we're still bottom, we are making ground on most teams in the bottom half. It's a long time since we won by two goals and kept a clean sheet. I'm pleased for Goodi but made up for Terry Gornell. If we keep winning like this, we will soon make progress.

By the way, I notice that our injured/ill players made a miraculous recovery (Goodison, Edds, Logan, McLaren). Were they walking wounded or was Les playing games when he said we had only 2 fit players? For once, I'm really looking forward to the reports.

 

[SonkORLY?]

a manager who can organise a team who makes us competative like under moore and a decent youth system, i know we punched above our weight last season but this season has been so poor so far its untrue.
obviously money can help but its not just that as various teams thoughout all the leagues have proven.

This doesn't answer my question. If we're not one of the smallest 4 clubs in this league then to finish in the bottom 4 would, by definition, be a disasterous underachievment. Should this happen, the reasons for it doing so are obvious - but that doesn't make them forgivable. Anyone who acceptingly resigns themself to relegation citing "falling attendences" and so on needs putting straight. We're a League One size club and we have the resources to be competitive at this level.

 

[DixieDean]

If we're not one of the smallest 4 clubs in this league then to finish in the bottom 4 would, by definition, be a disasterous underachievment.

How are we defining "small" here? Home Attendances? Yearly Accounts?

 

[DixieDean]

Also, I'm not sure the size of the club (regardless of whether we're talking turnover or crowds) should be the ONLY criteria to use when deciding the expected order of the teams in the league.

Newcastle have big crowds and a very healthy turnover (6th largest in the Prem in 2007-8) but the club was in a mess last season and they went down. Hmm club in a mess.....ring any bells?

 

[DixieDean]

With my Statto hat on, I'm afraid recent history does not favour our chances.

After 18 games we are bottom with 13 points.
Since our division has been called League 1, these are the teams sitting bottom over the last few season after 18 games:

2008-9 Crewe (9 points)
2007-8 Port Vale (12)
2006-7 Cheltenham (15)
2005-6 Swindon (14)
2004-5 Stockport (10)

Every single one of these clubs failed to avoid relegation.

We can only go on kidding ourselves for so long....

 

[NeverBeatDaveHiggins]

It IS a huge mountain to climb... but I BELIEVE.. I BELIEVE.. I BELIEVE!!!


Who are we? WHITE ARMY!

 

[Ian]

Who are we? WHITE ARMY!

Yep, we are the white army.
We are also a poor 1st division side with a physio in charge. :-#

 

[bigmart]

and 7 weeks after sacking the manager we are still in the same position, think we may just be able to get a win tomorrow but fear a hammering at huddersfield who score goals for fun at home

 

[Tartantranmere64]

if we play like we did on tuesday i'll be happy for our physio to remain in charge

 

[SCooperSomersaults]

if we play like we did on tuesday i'll be happy for our physio to remain in charge

Hear hear, that battling spirit is most certainly required for the remaining games this season. If we do that, then we have a chance of getting out of this mess.

We are really at our level (unfortunately) in this division. Crowds, finances, players however u want to measure, we're an average League One club who have been overachieiving for years, and how we'd love them days back!

Gotta take the rough with the smooth, no matter how bad it feels at the moment. Keep the faith!=D>

 

[SonkORLY?]

Also, I'm not sure the size of the club (regardless of whether we're talking turnover or crowds) should be the ONLY criteria to use when deciding the expected order of the teams in the league.

Newcastle have big crowds and a very healthy turnover (6th largest in the Prem in 2007-8) but the club was in a mess last season and they went down. Hmm club in a mess.....ring any bells?

That isn't the point at all.

Should a club with more funds available expect to finish above a team with less? Yes.
Should a club with less funds available expect to finish above a team with more? No.
Does it always work out that way? Nah.
Newcastle were relegated because they were poorly ran - they made bad decisions in terms of appointing/sacking managers and wasted the money they had available for player recruitment. They underachieved...

If we get relegated this season this underachievment, though less drastic, should be equally unacceptable. My point is that we can't blame out perceived "small budget" as an excuse when there are more than 4 teams working on a smaller budget than ourselves.

Additionally, we've got a handful of first team players who took us to 7th place last season.

Relegation is far from an acceptable benchmark...

 

[DixieDean]

there are more than 4 teams working on a smaller budget than ourselves...

name them.

 

[SonkORLY?]

I would guess that Stockport, Hartlepool, Wycombe, Exeter, Walsall and Yeovil are all working on a smaller budget than we are (based on operating losses/board aspirations/general quality+depth of squad)

I expect Carlisle, Oldham, Orient etc are all working to similar budgets to ourselves...

Despite a sharp decline in turnover over recent years, there's no reason we can't compete in League One. Prior to this year some of our fans seemed to think we have a god given right to be competing for the playoffs every season - this year has been a wake up call, and perhaps these fans will look back at last season with a renewed sense of appreciation for the overachievment we enjoyed under Ronnie.

At the other end of the scale, we now have the doom and gloomers, unfoundedly stating that we've "found our level" at the bottom of the league, destined for Conference football etc. Not sure what's so difficult about having realistic expectations.

 

[Tartantranmere64]

I generally agree with that. Anyway, there's no reason that a club of Rovers' size couldn't and shouldn't fluctuate between the Championship and L2. Blackpool and Bradford are two clubs which you could interchange current league positions and not be surprised.

While I really, really don't want us to go down (it means we'll continue to keep losing all season), relegation can sometimes be the springboard to great success - look at Posh and Southend in recent years. (On the other hand look at Luton - although there's were special circumstances.)

I'm not as pessimistic as some, however, I acknowledge there is a great deal to be done on and off the pitch to get Tranmere back on track.

 

[bring back the cowshed!]

I take a lot of comfort from recent performance. In November, we mnanaged three clean sheets and never conceded more than two goals. The players' confidence seems to be higher, although it could hardly get worse.

On my Christmas list are :
1. a new, "permanent" manager we can respect and rally behind.
2. a return to form of any of our strikers.
3. a win at Aldershot followed by a good crowd for Wolves and some TV money.

Actually, I think number 3 is as important as anything.

 

[TheBunnyBellEnd]

As long as its mathematically positive to survive then we can do it. I for one think that Les has done things the right way round. If you stop conceding goals then you will start picking up results. IF we can keep another couple of clean sheets then I would expect Les and co to start looking at matters at the othwer end of the pitch. There were a lot of areas that needed improving when Les took over and he has had to address them one at a time.
My only worry is Les does not know how to move things on further, Get a new man in, he will bring fresh ideas, tactics, philosophies. He can then get rid of some of the deadwood in January and possibly bring in a couple of new faces. (These may even be players he has worked with in the past)

Its NOT set in stone we can get out of this mess, but I cant help feeling that there is something going on behind the scene that we are not privvy too.

 

[DixieDean]

I would guess that Stockport, Hartlepool, Wycombe, Exeter, Walsall and Yeovil are all working on a smaller budget than we are (based on operating losses/board aspirations/general quality+depth of squad)

I expect Carlisle, Oldham, Orient etc are all working to similar budgets to ourselves..

Not having a go here Sonkorly? but how do you know the "board aspirations" of other clubs in League one? :?
We don't even know OUR board's aspirations - other than the fact they are unwilling to spend any money (and in fact they have none to spend).

Tranmere have a turnover of approx £3 million a year and generally have an operating loss of around £1million quid a year. Figures I have cover 2007-8 season. Our losses that year were helped by the sales of Zola £200k and £275k (initially) for Davies, plus sell on payment from the Koumas deal to Wigan. So we lost around £400k. Keep that in your mind though, the £1 million pound a year loss as we KNOW that this cripples the club that has a chairman unwilling to spend any more of his own money, which is fair enough....

So, I'll list below a few clubs from league 1 with their 2007-8 figures and you can make your own mind up just how far ahead of these clubs we are :shock:

Tranmere: turnover £3.1million with a LOSS of £438k
Yeovil: turnover £3.6million with a LOSS of £135k
Walsall: turnover £6.7million with a PROFIT of £408k
Wycombe: turnover £4million with a LOSS of £1m
L Orient: turnover £3.6million with a LOSS of £132k
Wycombe: annual turnover (approx) £4million with annual losses of £1.4million

I think Exeter and Stockport have smaller turnovers than us, not sure about the others, but will investigate....

I know Carlisle have a bigger turnover than us, not sure on profit though.

The point I'm making here is I want to ensure we aren't all gazing through rose tinted specs! It's easy to think we're bigger than other clubs. I personally think we are more capable of getting relegated than we are of challenging at the top of the table.

I take no pleasure in being one of the people who believe that we are currently fighting above our level and actually think that (unless the premiership decides to share more money out) football is heading for a major re-structuring within the next decade that will see only around 60 full-time professional clubs survive, with the rest playing in various non-league divisions and I believe we'll be one of them.

 

[SonkORLY?]

I personally think we are more capable of getting relegated than we are of challenging at the top of the table.

Yeah but that's not really saying a lot.

Anyway, those figures a bit eye opening. I spent some time trying to get hold of some of the info you've got there. Starting to come over to your side of the fence, didn't realise clubs like Yeovil could keep losses to < £200k. Damn.

Tranmere have a turnover of approx £3 million a year and generally have an operating loss of around £1million quid a year. Figures I have cover 2007-8 season. Our losses that year were helped by the sales of Zola £200k and £275k (initially) for Davies, plus sell on payment from the Koumas deal to Wigan. So we lost around £400k. Keep that in your mind though, the £1 million pound a year loss as we KNOW that this cripples the club that has a chairman unwilling to spend any more of his own money, which is fair enough.....

Think we got ~£2m for Taylor and Hume the season before, too. The figure widely attatched to the sale of Andy Taylor is £400k. Weighing outgoing transfers vs stated operating losses, we should have been self-sustaining over the past 3 years. We've got a good record in the transfer market...but how much of this has been chance?

Tranmere: turnover £3.1million with a LOSS of £438k
Yeovil: turnover £3.6million with a LOSS of £135k
Walsall: turnover £6.7million with a PROFIT of £408k
Wycombe: turnover £4million with a LOSS of £1m
L Orient: turnover £3.6million with a LOSS of £132k
Wycombe: annual turnover (approx) £4million with annual losses of £1.4million

FYI Walsall most recently published that they were breaking even after turnover dropped by 800k or something.

So assuming much of the money we turnover is matchday revenue, how is it possible that teams with consistantly lower/similar attendences as us can boast figures like that? Also, it looks pretty clear that we have greater costs. Where are we bleeding money and why can't we address it?

 

[DixieDean]

Think we got ~£2m for Taylor and Hume the season before, too.

we should have been self-sustaining over the past 3 years.

The figure widely attatched to the sale of Andy Taylor is £400k.

Taylor & Hume both moved in 2005 (doesn't time fly!)

In 2006-7, Tranmere made a pre-tax loss of £966,419 with incoming transfer fees amounting to just £31,158.

The Andy Taylor sale will be in this year's accounts, meaning we need to find another £600k to break even. I imagine the "pay-off"s of our last 2 managers would have hit us hard too!!

 

[Ian]

In such a financial position, why would you offer 30+ players 2/3 year contracts? To offer that level of commitment seems a little crazy, although I suppose its usually the manager contracts which tend to have a shorter life than the player ones.