• Nigel Adkins has been given the Tranmere job on a permanent basis signing until the end of the 25/26 season. Continue the discussion here.

Eastleigh v Rovers

Cowshed Kid

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You're right Sparky, but the mileage for this thread is cos we lost.
If we'd won we wouldn't be nit picking about the bench.
Hindsight, perhaps for MM, is golden.
 

Sparky

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Yep. Being positive we're creating chances and it sounds like a win is just around the corner
 
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For seventy minutes I thought the performance was an improvement on the previous two games. Playing a 4312 the team looked better balanced and Jennings looked more comfortable, and there was a better variation of tactics, with balls up to Cook and into the channels for Norwood, who played well. We were not scintillating, but we should have come away with at least a point. Eastleigh looked a better and less cynical side than the teams we played in the last two seasons.

The first half was very tight, with both teams having periods on top. However, we played the better possession football and slightly edged the half on chances: Cook missed a good opportunity from fifteen yards and Jennings hit the post. At the other end, the dangerous Williamson hit the side netting with a free header.

In the first twenty minutes of the second half we upped the tempo and I thought we would go on and win the game. Alas, we missed further chances. Norwood was one-on-one with the keeper but dragged his shot wide; a great cross from Ridehalgh which was crying out to be finished was not attacked; Hughes missed what looked a tap-in after being set up by Norburn. Inevitably, we paid for those spurned opportunities when Williamson fired home after poor defending, Sutton getting caught out of position and the rest of the defence wrongly attempting to play off side. At this point Harris was replaced by Dunn, in what looked purely a tactical move to me, to get three forwards on the pitch. We continued to press, but caught by a sucker punch after a poorly defended free kick, the initial foul being needlessly given away by Dunn. At this point we visibly lost confidence and heads dropped.

I honestly believe the only difference between the sides was that Eastlieigh have an in-form striker - Williamson - and we don't. Eastleigh always looked an attacking threat, but the opening goal was their first shot on target as far as I can recall.

Mellon has made tactical mistakes in previous games, but he got it right today in my view. Nor did I see any complacency from the players: I think we are just in a cycle of poor results leading to low confidence, leading to poor results. I am concerned about the situation as these runs can be very difficult to get out of. However, in every game I have seen this season, it is clear we have had better players than the opposition and I believe the squad is fundamentally good: we just have to hope we scrape a win soon by any means to get back on track.

Individually, I thought Adam Buxton had another good game but I would give man of the match to James Norwood because of his tireless running and intelligent movement. Hughes was well below par, but I thought everyone else did ok, albeit showing signs of low confidence.

Glad I am on holiday next week to get away from it all for a bit......
 
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Boz

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BBTC raised concerns about the bench, which I shared, before a ball has been kicked.

It didn't seem the lack of substitute options was a key element today, the main problem was failing to polish off some good chances.

However, both Harris and Buxton picked up injuries during the game. It seemed initially that Dunn was going to replace CJ, but then the plans had to be re-jigged with Jay coming off and Buxton picked up a hamstring niggle, but nobody available to play at right-back without shuffling 3 players and no defender on the bench. When Micky's remarks post Guiseley suggest Waring not ready fitness wise and both Gumbs and Duggan travelled it is a puzzle why Micky goes down the all attack subs route.
 
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All the fit midfielders (excepting Duggan) were on the pitch. However, it was strange not to have a centre back on the bench. Perhaps McEvely travelled but got injured in training ?
 
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The latest statistical fad in football is something called "expected goals", where you look at all the chances and estimate the probability of scoring a goal. For example, if a team has two half-chances (each having probability 0.5), then the expected goals (EG) = 0.5 + 0.5 = 1.0. If they have three chances where the probability is 0.4, 0.2 and 0.1, the EG is 0.7. The point is that if a team scores more than the EG, the strikers are in good form but if they score less then they are missing more chances than they should.

Apart from the Woking game, I suspect Rovers have been in the latter category this season. From the reports I have read, the EG in every game must be at least 2.0 but we have failed to score at all. If I am right, we are certainly creating enough chances to win games. I know they publish EG stats for the EPL, but does anyone know if it has got down to the NL yet?
 

Ian

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Thanks RLC. You would expect the players to at least be creating chances at this level, if they were not it would be very worrying indeed. Would it not make sense to try different attacking options, maybe Mangan or dare I say it Alabi for a longer period as they will probably be restricted to 10/15 minute cameos throughout the season.
 

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bigmart

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McEverley was injured but the bane of the bench in every game has been poor, Gumbs should have been on the bench yesterday and Duggan who can play midfield or wing back should be involved too.

A big week now as we simply have to turn it around next weekend or are chances of the top spot could be virtually gone before September is here.
 

Boz

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Micky didn't say that much in the interview, beyond accepting responsibility, as perplexed as the rest of us maybe.

Did confirm injuries to Harris and Buxton.
 

Ian

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The finger always gets pointed towards the manager and to be fair, Micky is taking it on the chin, but the players aren't doing the business. They need to step up too. Think he needs some Alex Ferguson special cups in the dressing room.
 
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Thanks RLC. You would expect the players to at least be creating chances at this level, if they were not it would be very worrying indeed. Would it not make sense to try different attacking options, maybe Mangan or dare I say it Alabi for a longer period as they will probably be restricted to 10/15 minute cameos throughout the season.
I would stick with Cook and Norwood for the time being, as I still think they are the most likely to get us out of this. Dunn and Alabi were getting barracked by some people again yesterday, which is moronic. I don't think either of them are as bad as people are suggesting, but it is difficult for them to come into a team which is not performing.
 
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Fair play to Micky for shouldering the majority of the blame, but it is the players who are missing the chances. The problem now is that Micky looks like he's struggling to find a solution and the players must be feeling under increased pressure. Somehow MM needs to keep the players focused and motivated while actually making them LESS tense. I am sure they will get there. The problem is as bigmart says, we are losing ground fast. If we are to get 100 points, as I would want, we can only drop 38 points over 46 games. To date, we are already 10 down after 5 matches.

I am still confident and there is time. I am not sure we'll have another Lincoln City this season. It will be a lot tighter. Maybe we won't need 100 points.
 
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I would stick with Cook and Norwood for the time being, as I still think they are the most likely to get us out of this. Dunn and Alabi were getting barracked by some people again yesterday, which is moronic. I don't think either of them are as bad as people are suggesting, but it is difficult for them to come into a team which is not performing.
I absolutely agree, RLC. You shouldn't get youngsters to get the experienced players out of the hole they've dug. Cook and Norwood are by far our best and most experienced strikers Cook has not had many chances, while Norwood has missed three games. The games coming up look a little easier and I bet the flood gates open before long.
 
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Just wanted to add that Eastleigh's first goal yesterday was the result of Sutton wandering to the half way line and leaving the defence exposed. Not having a go at him, but it is the kind of mistake that McNulty would be absolutely pilloried for if he made it: another defender makes a costly error and it is barely mentioned on social media.
 
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Boz

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It sounded like Cook was a bit off the boil yesterday, while Norwood played well. Agree with persisting with that pair for now. It is disappointing to hear that Dunn and Alabi were getting barracked, the latter has hardly been with us long enough to form a view about his ability.

Haven't seen the goals from yesterday properly yet, but it sounded like while the original mistake for the first lay with Sutton, but there was a failure by others to cover; at the time he lost the ball a goal was not inevitable. Also that Davies was disappointed with himself for letting the shot beat him where it did.
 
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Listening to MM's comments it sounded like we did start with a 433 again yesterday, albeit Jennings seemed to be drifting inside a lot, probably because he is not comfortable out wide. I don't think any of us like this formation, and neither do the players judging by results.

What are the alternatives if we want to freshen things up ? Should we switch to wing backs and bring Duggan in, particularly if Harris is missing next week ? In his interviews Mellon has said several times that he is trying to fit all his best players into the side, a trap that a lot of managers fall into. Midfield certainly seems congested at the moment with Hughes, Harris and Norburn in the centre, and Dunn and Jennings both coming narrow a lot of the time.

As I have said previously, we have the players to use the diamond formation which was effective for much of last season, so it is strange that Mellon has opted for a system we played on only a couple of occasions and resulted in defeat at Wembley.

Plenty for the manager to ponder in the week ahead......
 
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Just to correct myself again...... As I had originally thought, we did actually start with the diamond yesterday prior to Harris's injury. We looked more effective with that system, so I would go with it again next week.
 

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I was also at the game yesterday and won't repeat anything from the very accurate RLC reports. Just to answer about the performance of Cookie; yes he was well below his best yesterday whereas Nors was really looking very sharp and had his crisp cross shot gone the other side of the post it would have been a fantastic goal as he was onto the opportunity in a flash controlling instantly and making contact that the keeper did not get near.
Our play did become far too predicatable as the game progressed by continually pumping high balls into the box. We were at our best when moving the ball about crisply and actually we did play some very good football at times and I am sure if we had scored early on it would have been a different story.
INo doubt we can all remember new players who have made shaky starts but come good and I support giving the new guys time.However having said that I find it very challenging to spot the potential in Alabi as he seems to duck down rather than leap for the high ball and he seems to trap the ball further than I can kick it : maybe it is a confidence thing but the potential is hard to spot. Dunne is not a high work rate player, is not a real wide speed merchant but you can see he has got some good skills which hopefully will help him blossom with more game time when his decision making should improve.
Yes it is all disappointing but don't be too despondent guys, we still look as though we can play and one good result may lead us to others. Think I would give the wing back formation a go with Jeff Hughes taking a breather with a back three of MC Everley left and Sutton right of big Steve who incidentally had generally a very good game yesterday.
 
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