Are we going up?

[Boz]

I think the automatics are gone now, we'd need to win 6 of the remaining games which with current form and tactics isn't going to happen.

Reckon reaching the play-offs is difficult given Mansfield and Swindon have games/a game in hand over us. Even if we can muster some improved form and tactics away from home 6 of our 7 opponents at this point still have something to play for;

Carlisle H Need a few more points to secure L2 safety and in decent form.
Bristol Rovers H Fellow promotion/play-off contender, winning streak ended yesterday
Bradford A Probably the only opponent with nothing at stake, but in a false position due to failings of the previous manager
Exeter H Well-placed to make the automatics
Stevenage A Need points for league survival and not a happy hunting ground for Rovers
Oldham H Might be down by the time we meet or still fighting.
Orient A Not yet safe but barring a string of losses would expect them to be by the time of our visit.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

I think the automatics are gone now, we'd need to win 6 of the remaining games which with current form and tactics isn't going to happen.

Reckon reaching the play-offs is difficult given Mansfield and Swindon have games/a game in hand over us. Even if we can muster some improved form and tactics away from home 6 of our 7 opponents at this point still have something to play for;

Carlisle H Need a few more points to secure L2 safety and in decent form.
Bristol Rovers H Fellow promotion/play-off contender, winning streak ended yesterday
Bradford A Probably the only opponent with nothing at stake, but in a false position due to failings of the previous manager
Exeter H Well-placed to make the automatics
Stevenage A Need points for league survival and not a happy hunting ground for Rovers
Oldham H Might be down by the time we meet or still fighting.
Orient A Not yet safe but barring a string of losses would expect them to be by the time of our visit.

I think under the independent, objective statistical models, we are still on course to make the play offs.

We have the best home form in the division, so all four home games are perfectly winnable.

 

[Ian]

Agreed. It is the home games that make me believe we will make the playoffs but it's going to be incredibly tight.

 

[bigmart]

Agreed. It is the home games that make me believe we will make the playoffs but it's going to be incredibly tight.

The problem is I don't see us any of the remaining away games so the pressure to win all the game games will be immense

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

The problem is I don't see us any of the remaining away games so the pressure to win all the game games will be immense

I don't think the players think in those terms. They will just go and play each game individually.

There is no reason to believe our home form will slump, any more than our away form will dramatically improve.

 

[Boz]

Our good home form didn't count for much when we got thumped by Forest Green though. I would be very surprised if we won all four of our remaining home games, considering the opponents, which does suggest we'd need at least one win on our travels to secure a play-off spot.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

Our good home form didn't count for much when we got thumped by Forest Green though. I would be very surprised if we won all four of our remaining home games, considering the opponents, which does suggest we'd need at least one win on our travels to secure a play-off spot.

One home result tells us less than nineteen. We earned a point away from home last week, so there is no reason why we can't in the remaining three games.

We have occupied a top seven position since Christmas, irrespective of how or where the points were earned.

 

[bring back the cowshed!]

I think under the independent, objective statistical models, we are still on course to make the play offs.

We have the best home form in the division, so all four home games are perfectly winnable.

Whoever wrote those statistical models clearly wasn’t at Colchester yesterday.

Any game is winnable, but beating Exeter and Bristol Rovers at home would be massive achievements even if we were on top form.

 

[Ian]

Any game is winnable, but beating Exeter and Bristol Rovers at home would be massive achievements even if we were on top form.

If the club want to achieve, they have to beat these teams. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

Whoever wrote those statistical models clearly wasn’t at Colchester yesterday.

Any game is winnable, but beating Exeter and Bristol Rovers at home would be massive achievements even if we were on top form.

One performance or result does not tell us as much as thirty nine completed matches, and there was not much wrong with large parts of the performance yesterday.

It is an exaggeration to say that wining those home games would be a 'massive achievement'; we beat Mansfield a couple of weeks ago when we were hopelessly out of form. In any case, we might not need to win both games, depending on other results and the remaining away matches, which are not preordained as defeats.

 

[Boz]

One home result tells us less than nineteen. We earned a point away from home last week, so there is no reason why we can't in the remaining three games.

We have occupied a top seven position since Christmas, irrespective of how or where the points were earned.

All 4 of the home games we've lost have been against promotion contenders; Newport, Northampton, Sutton and Forest Green, so I think it's reasonable to be wary before forecasting wins against other sides in that category. I hope we do beat Bristol Rovers and Exeter, but wouldn't stake any money on it.

Mansfield have played 3 games less than us, if they were to win at Pools midweek we'd be out of the top 7. I'm unsure they'll manage that, but only need to get 2 points from those 3 games to be above Rovers.

With the usual caveats about football not being played on paper, if you look at our remaining games, the away fixtures appear easier, though I'd have said that before yesterday too. I'm not ruling out a play-off place but think we'll probably need 5 points from the remaining away games to secure it

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

We won't necessarily have to beat both Exeter and Bristol Rovers. It is not inevitable that we pick up zero points from the away matches, or that we don't get favourable results elsewhere.

Mansfield have games in hand, but we are level on points with three other teams, so we are in direct competition with several other clubs.

 

[ADD]

I think under the independent, objective statistical models, we are still on course to make the play offs.

We have the best home form in the division, so all four home games are perfectly winnable.

Please don't keep us all in suspense. Can you please provide a link to these models.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

Please don't keep us all in suspense. Can you please provide a link to these models.

They have been referenced on other sites that you frequent, so I am sure you are well aware of them. Do spare me the condescension.

My wider point is that given we are currently seventh, and have been in the top seven for months, it is hardly inconceivable that we will finish at least, er, seventh.

 

[bring back the cowshed!]

My wider point is that given we are currently seventh, and have been in the top seven for months, it is hardly inconceivable that we will finish at least, er, seventh.

Definitely conceivable we will finish in the playoffs, but given Mansfield will almost certainly get at least one draw from their three games in hand and Swindon could win theirs, we could easily find ourselves in ninth position even if we start winning. Football is also about momentum and the current direction is downward. I believe and hope Micky can change things, but as they stand I am not yet convinced we are even going to make the playoffs. The team is lacking in confidence (but not effort) and goals. Micky's tactics are normally good but playing our only fit and proven striker as a support forward is surely not the answer to our goal drought.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

Football is also about momentum and the current direction is downward.

We have won seven points from the last four matches. If we repeat that points per game ratio return in the remaining seven games, we will make the play offs.

I don't think you can talk about 'momentum' in relation to the top ten this season, with the exception of a couple of sides, given there has been so much jockeying for position, with teams regularly exiting and then re-entering the top seven.

We are not lacking confidence at all at Prenton Park. We have won the last two home games and our home record is superb.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

Please don't keep us all in suspense. Can you please provide a link to these models.

League Two Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's League Two predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Especially for the Toxic Trio.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

League Two Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's League Two predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Especially for the Toxic Trio.

Funny. ADD always replies sarcastically to my posts, but he seems to have done a disappearing act.

Oh, where art thou........?

 

[bring back the cowshed!]

Funny. ADD always replies sarcastically to my posts, but he seems to have done a disappearing act.

Oh, where art thou........?

Perhaps he has something better to do on a Tuesday evening.

If I were him, I would not respond to being called toxic. It does you no credit, RLC.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

Perhaps he has something better to do on a Tuesday evening.

If I were him, I would not respond to being called toxic. It does you no credit, RLC.

The sarcastic tone of his original response to me does him no credit, as I am sure you will agree.

If you don't want to receive it, don't give it out.