Can we do it?

[Ian]

Well, with 10 games to go, its the official 'can we do it?' thread. Forget the play-offs, we want to be champions.

Run in:

Braintree (H)
Dover (H)
Wrexham (A)
Sutton Utd (H)
Solihull Moors (H)
Forest Green (H)
Aldershot (A)
Guiseley (A)
Southport (H)
Mainstone (A)

Not sure about those two local games (Wrexham and Southport) potential banana skins. Big game against FGR on the 11th April but last nights win was huge and takes us into two home games. I think we just need to go for it now. Big push for the last 10 games. Come on Rovers!!

 

[Sparky]

Despite their result last night I still think Lincoln will win the league. I hope I'm wrong as play offs are a lottery but I just cant see us being champions, despite last nights win. Before the FGR game we have 4 very winnable games (Braintree, Wrexham, Solihull & Sutton). Dover won't be easy although without Miller they have struggled of late. The problem with the home games against poorer sides is whether we'll be good enough to break them down when they park the bus. Much may depend on the return of Dunn and rumours we're signing at least 1 more wide player this week. Can we create enough clear chances in all these home games? Plus Wallace is back this week apparently - please Mickey do not bring him back into the team. He wasn't fit when he was playing....

I guess what may help might be that teams down the bottom don't play defensively if they are desperate for points and trying to stay up. However Southport for example will have been relegated by the time we play them. But would love to make our life difficult.

Exciting (and nerve wracking) times ahead!

 

[bring back the cowshed!]

I think we can finish champions if our form returns and some of our better players return. We also need Lincoln to continue to falter and FGR to fade a bit. That's all possible. I'd say 20% probability of autopromotion, 75% of playoffs and 5% of a repeat of last year. If we reach the playoffs, I'd give us a slightly better than average chance (about 1 in 3), so overall I think as things stand we've a just less than even chance of going up.

 

[bring back the cowshed!]

Now the dust has settled and the tears have dried after last night, where do we go from here? I have been positive recently about catching Lincoln but now realistically it's the play-offs. Perhaps one last attempt to gain ground on Friday, but that won't be easy as just like yesterday, we will be desperate for a win but our opponents will be happy for a draw and will look to mug us as we get more frustrated.

If we haven't gained ground by the end of the week, our focus must surely be on the play-offs. Whether we finish second or fifth, it will still be the same lottery. We must make sure we are prepared for the 47th, 48th and hopefully 49th league game. So, we should use the 44th, 45th and 46th to get ready. We don't need to field all of our best players. Keeping the momentum going has been mentioned, but surely after the last game, we've lost a lot of it already.

This week we lost yet another in-form, key player in Jay Harris. We could lose others in the next four games. So surely there's a case for giving the likes of Sousa and Collins a run out and getting returning players like Maynard back to match fitness. We might even try a different formation.

What worries me about the play-offs, apart from a dread of a tie being decided on penalties, is our record this season against our likely opponents. FGR - no wins, no goals. Dag & Red - ditto. We lost our last game against Aldershot, Barrow, Gateshead and Macclesfield. Only against Dover did we get results. That is not being defeatist, it's just that we can't continue as we are. We need to be more decisive and less predictable.

I know some of you will totally disagree with me, but I would like to think that Micky would also acknowledge that our results (if not our performances) against the top sides are a concern.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

We should not be resting players for the final four games under any circumstances.

Firstly, we have to win them all in the, admittedly unlikely, event that Lincoln slip up.

Secondly, we have to maintain the high standards and intensity of performance we have had for the past six months under Mellon, and take that form into the play-offs. Tranmere supporters only need to look at the 2004-5 season to see what messing round with experimental line-ups in the closing weeks does to your play off chances.

Thirdly, we are playing a number of other teams involved in the promotion and relegation battles and have an obligation to be competitive in those games.

Players like Sousa and Collins will naturally get some time on the pitch, as they did on Saturday, but we won't be 'resting' key players. Why would we experiment with a different formation when the 352 has given us the best form in the league ?

BBTC's summary of our record against the top sides is also somewhat misleading, as we have already beaten Gateshead, Macclesfield and Barrow, in addition to doing the double over Dover. We also scored two against FGR in the away fixture. In any case, play off matches are different to regular league games, and we have more big match experience in our squad than the majority of our likely opponents.

 

[bring back the cowshed!]

RLC, I think we are going to have to agree to disagree about this and wait to see how it pans out.

To answer your points, it is likely to be over two or three games before the end of the season anyway. You cannot expect the players to perform at their best in a meaningless game, risking injury and missing a possible Wembley appearance. Looking at the fixture list, I doubt any of our games (apart from Aldershot, where I accept we should go all out to win) will affect the promotion or relegation standings. The 352 did not work against FGR this week and we need to be more flexible. Granted we did score against FGR and have beaten those three sides. However, we lost the return, i.e most recent fixture, so I would argue they have worked us out. Barrow turned a 5-1 trophy defeat into a home league win. Finally, we may have more big match experience than our opponents (which is not a lot), but that didn't help in the league games.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

Bbtc I do not agree with your points, although I wont rebut them one by one. However, are you really suggesting we should ditch the formation that has given us six wins from seven and our best performances of the season, purely because of one defeat ? And start from scratch with a completely different system at this late and crucial stage in the season ? That would be utter madness in my view. You cannot state that a system ' does not work' because of one loss ( in a game where we played extremely well incidentally).

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

The defeat on Tuesday had nothing to do with the formation. We created numerous chances but did not take them. The 352 has been hugely successful for us and has got us into our current, very strong, position.

 

[Ian]

We created numerous chances but did not take them.

This is ultimately the key. No point changing things now. The formation and squad is working, we simply have to score when we get the chance. That was the only thing wrong with our performance against FGR and like MM says that is the name of the game. FGR did it with their one real sniff on goal, we didn't.

In summary, if we do not take our chances, we can wave the football league goodbye.

 

[drwhoman]

Spot on Ian. You can play all the good football you like but if you do not put the ball in the net........

 

[Boz]

We should not be resting players for the final four games under any circumstances.

I agree with the majority of what you say in terms of the 3-5-2 formation being the best option given the long-term absentees and the risks associated with chopping and changing the side in the run in to the play-offs. However once it becomes mathematically impossible for Rovers to take top spot, my view is that we should use the full squad to allow some players a needed break and to ensure all those who may be called upon during the play-offs to get some experience of working with team-mates in a match situation.

To take one example Jeff Hughes. The challenge he got booked for v FGR in some eyes could easily have been a red card which would have meant a 4 game ban compulsory rest for the remainder of the league programme in any event. It is obvious from his dip in form and work-rate that he's no longer performing at the high levels of earlier in the season. If we are able to rest him for a couple of games, then he may return refreshed for the final run in.

 

[bring back the cowshed!]

RLC, I am not advocating ditching any systems or players. I advocated 352 originally when we lost our wingers. I just want us to use the remaining games to prepare for the play-offs. We've no need to go all out to win the next four games.

 

[Ian]

We've no need to go all out to win the next four games.

Why, if we still have a chance to take top spot?

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

Why, if we still have a chance to take top spot?

Precisely. We will probably have a mathematical chance of winning the league until the final week, and until then we should be going all out to win games.

If the title is beyond us, by all means give individual players like Hughes a rest. However, there is no way we should be making wholesale changes, or experimenting at this stage in the season, as form and confidence are still vital going into the play-offs.

We also need to keep the fans on side. If the season petered out as it did in 2004-5, the whole mood around the club would become more negative going into those vital matches.

 

[bring back the cowshed!]

REVIEW OF 2016/17

Just for general interest and a bit of fun, I have compiled a brief analysis of the team’s league form this season. It may change a little after the final game, but I think the statistics are clear. Rather than start a new thread, I have included it in this one, as I think it may have an effect on our play-off prospects. I have analysed our results against teams based on their current league position after 45 games.

1: CHAMPIONS
Lincoln City beat us twice and are the only team ever to get a league double against us in the National League.
Percentage points: 0%
3-5: PLAY-OFF CONTENDERS
Assuming Aldershot fill the final place, we will have lost and drawn against every team we could meet in the play-offs.
Percentage points: 17%
6-12: REST OF THE TOP HALF
We fared quite well against these teams, winning eight, drawing one and losing four of the 13 games played so far.
Percentage points: 64%
13-24: BOTTOM HALF
Against this group we were undefeated, winning 20 and drawing just four.
Percentage points: 89%

These stats are in contrast to last year, when we were much more erratic. For example, we won at Cheltenham (champions) and lost at home to Welling (bottom).

You do not have to be a professional statistician to conclude that this season the better the team, the worse we do. Micky will have to work out why we have found it impossible to beat our main rivals and decide what system and tactics will work best against Aldershot and hopefully in the final at Wembley.

 

[Sparky]

Interesting BBTC. As u say last year under GB we were often successful winning on the road at the bigger teams. This season it just hasn't happened.

Micky will have a job on his hands convincing some of the players that with all our injuries and our record against the other play off contenders that we have a good chance

I'd love to see stats that show how often the team who finishes just behind the automatic positions in the league goes up in the play offs...or whether it's often the team who finishes bottom of the play offs.

Or maybe I wouldn't want to know....

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

Interesting BBTC. As u say last year under GB we were often successful winning on the road at the bigger teams. This season it just hasn't happened.

Micky will have a job on his hands convincing some of the players that with all our injuries and our record against the other play off contenders that we have a good chance

I'd love to see stats that show how often the team who finishes just behind the automatic positions in the league goes up in the play offs...or whether it's often the team who finishes bottom of the play offs.

Or maybe I wouldn't want to know....

I think it splits roughly three ways between second, third and fourth place, but the team finishing fifth has never been promoted from the conference.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

While we have a poor record against the current top five, there is no point being fatalistic about the play-off games. The league table tells us we are the best team involved and there is no reason why we can't win promotion.

 

[Boz]

They are interesting stats, but what might be the explanation for our poorer results against the top sides? There might be an element of our more attacking approach leaving us susceptible to the counter attack, with opponents better equipped to punish us, as shown in the defeat at Lincoln. Excepting the home defeat by Dagenham we've generally played well against the top sides though, even if the results don't illustrate it.

 

[Rockford's Love Child]

I agree with boz that we have been unlucky in a lot of the games against top sides (Dagenham away, FGR at home). More generally, I think our lack of goals in the early part of the season made us vulnerable against the best teams. Against the strugglers we usually kept a clean sheet and often won by a single goal. When we could not shut the opposition out, we sometimes were not prolific enough to score two or three and win the game.