I think it will be another "if only" season. Our wretched start to the season will probably cost us dearly. Even Gary Brabin's team managed 20 points from the eleven games before he got the sack. This season we earned only 13 in the same period and those extra seven points would have put us clear at the top. Following our draw at Orient, winning all our remaining 13 games would not match last season's points total. That's how far we have slipped.
The worst was over after 12 games following the home defeat to Wrexham. Since then we've earned 42 points from 21 games, an average of two points per game. Projecting this to the end of the season would see us finish on 81 points, probably enough for the play-offs, possibly enough for third place, but almost certainly not enough for the championship.
You might think that our recent form has been a lot better than our rivals. Surprisingly, this is not true. All the top seven have earned at least 36 points from their last 21 games. Most worryingly, Macclesfield have also earned the same number of points as us in this period.
Macclesfield are four points ahead of us with a game in hand. This effectively means we have to make up seven points on them in 13 games. That's a tall order, but not impossible. But we also have to rely on Aldershot, Wrexham and Sutton all doing worse than us. So I think it will take 87 points to be champions. This means we need an average of just under two and a half points per game. This is equivalent to 10 wins, two draws and just one more defeat.
Financial advisers tell you that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Let's hope they are right and Rovers play even better than present form. That's the only way - realistically - we can win automatic promotion.