Are we going up?

Joined
1 Oct 2005
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4,399
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Alan King, Barry Dyson
I have been alarmed at our erratic form at times this season, so for a bit of fun I have analysed our results against clubs according to where they are in the league table.

Against the other clubs who are currently in the top eight, we have so far gained 53% of the points on offer. Yet in games against the teams now in the middle eight positions, we have fared slightly worse and have only broken even with 50% of the available points. However, our record against the strugglers now in the bottom third of the table is an impressive 71% success with 5 wins, 2 draws and only one defeat (to Walsall, who were then mid-table).

Why this might be interesting is that 8 out of our 14 remaining games are against bottom eight sides including two against Colchester. Only two are against mid-table teams, while the other four are against the top current top three and Exeter. If we maintain the above form, we will gain another 26 points from our remaining 14 matches, giving us a total of 80 points. In a season without any standout teams, that should secure us at least third place but probably not the title. I would take that. How doable it is without Vaughan I am not sure, but we now have KH who was missing for the first 13 games.
 

Boz

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Joined
30 Sep 2005
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6,430
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Iain Hume
Interesting analysis, BBTC, though especially due to the fluidity of the league, it would be helpful to have one based on league placings at the time we played them. For example think notlob were In the bottom third when we first played them and the middle third for the home game, but have been trundling up ominously and are now top third. Stats can at best act as pointers to the question you pose.

I was confident that we’d make the top 7, less certain of top 3 and the play-offs are always a lottery, so fairly hopeful. However, the loss of James Vaughan, the failure on Saturday to adapt to his absence and the fact there are sides like Bradford in good form and climbing the table have given that confidence a wobble. Let’s see what changes Keith introduces on Tuesday and how effective they are.
 
Joined
15 Mar 2010
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9,775
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Jason Koumas / John Morrissey
I think the difficulty with the analysis above is that our performance this season has clearly been split into two halves, the woeful form under Mike Jackson and strong performance since his sacking, and the results under Jacko don't give much of a guide as to future performance under Keith Hill. Since Jackson's departure we top pretty much every form table, as I posted a few days ago.

However, as Boz says, the loss of Vaughan is likely to be another major turning point and renders analysis of historic performance less useful, at least in the short term. We will probably only have an idea after another half dozen games of whether we are capable of adapting to life without Vaughan.
 
Joined
1 Mar 2021
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155
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Too many of them after over 50 years!
The last 6 match table looks completely different to the current table. Bolton top, Bradford second, Stevenage fourth, Tranmere tenth, Carlisle bottom (with 1 point!). Would be interesting to see how the win stats look compared against current form...
 
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