League Two Rovers v Barrow

Match result

  • Rovers

    Votes: 8 72.7%
  • Draw

    Votes: 2 18.2%
  • Barrow

    Votes: 1 9.1%

  • Total voters
    11
  • Poll closed .
Rovers v Barrow
Posted by Ian
Prenton Park
Saturday, April 24, 2021 - 03:00 PM
Until: Saturday, April 24, 2021 - 05:00 PM
(Adjusted for timezone: Europe/London)
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It will be a difficult decision for Mark if we reach the playoffs but fail to go up, as is the most likely scenario. Does he back Keith next season, when a repeat performance over 46 games would probably mean automatic promotion? Or does he start from scratch with another manager, given his indifferent record on appointments?
 
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It will be a difficult decision for Mark if we reach the playoffs but fail to go up, as is the most likely scenario. Does he back Keith next season, when a repeat performance over 46 games would probably mean automatic promotion? Or does he start from scratch with another manager, given his indifferent record on appointments?
A repeat performance would not mean automatic promotion, which is my issue with Hill. His points per game ratio is not actually good enough to have secured a top three place over 46 games.

Edit: it would actually give us 78 points over an entire season, which is touch and go for an automatic position this season, but would not be enough for the top three in most years.

However, we also have to consider whether he would recruit a squad as strong as the one we have now, which is debatable given his January dealings.
 
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Ian

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Hill's performance since the Vaughan injury has been worrying indeed. Not only did he fail to find an answer to Vaughan, he also failed to play Nugent to his strengths. I'm not saying Nugent is wonderful but we may have got more out of him had we setup similar to the second half yesterday instead of having him run around chasing every lost ball. He has a big emphasis on clean sheets too, which do help of course but that also strikes me of a quite defdensive minded manager. Not quite the rock 'n' roll football we hoped for.

Is it fair to say Hill's performance has slowly degraded over time? He joined when the going was good and we were flying so he gets a bit of grace time there but have the results and performances being getting worse or is this simply due in large part to the injuries we've had? I wonder how many of those draws would have turned into wins had Vaughan been on the pitch.
 
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A repeat performance would not mean automatic promotion, which is my issue with Hill. His points per game ratio is not actually good enough to have secured a top three place over 46 games.

Edit: it would actually give us 78 points over an entire season, which is touch and go for an automatic position this season, but would not be enough for the top three in most years.

However, we also have to consider whether he would recruit a squad as strong as the one we have now, which is debatable given his January dealings.
I calculate his record so far is 54 points from 31 games (starting from Carlisle at home) making 80 points for a full season. If we win our last two games, the equivalent is 83 points. Eighty would normally be enough to get into the top three, although "what if" calculations like this are difficult. My overall point re the choice facing Mark is still valid.

If (and I admit it is a big if), Keith can persuade key players to re-sign, recruit well over the summer and benefit from a settled squad, then we will have a good chance next season. As we have seen, changing the manager at PP does not guarantee success.
 
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aldo
I think it's a load of bull to say he played for England And in the prem so he should be respected for it if he gets some goals that make us win the Playoffs then I will respect him, not based on 45 mins of a game no
 
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I calculate his record so far is 54 points from 31 games (starting from Carlisle at home) making 80 points for a full season. If we win our last two games, the equivalent is 83 points. Eighty would normally be enough to get into the top three, although "what if" calculations like this are difficult. My overall point re the choice facing Mark is still valid.

If (and I admit it is a big if), Keith can persuade key players to re-sign, recruit well over the summer and benefit from a settled squad, then we will have a good chance next season. As we have seen, changing the manager at PP does not guarantee success.
I don't think 80 points would guarantee automatic promotion in many seasons if you look at the historic statistics, and I would say it is a good but not particularly exceptional ratio given the players we have. The question of future recruitment is one we can't make a judgement on using statistics, although Hill's performance in January was not particularly encouraging.

Personally, I am quite torn regarding Hill irrespective of whether we are promoted, and I would not be surprised if Palios feels the same way.
 
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I have just checked the stats and in four of the last five completed League Two seasons, the third placed team finished on 85 points, hence our current PPG return under Hill would not have been good enough for promotion in those seasons.
 
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I have just checked the stats and in four of the last five completed League Two seasons, the third placed team finished on 85 points, hence our current PPG return under Hill would not have been good enough for promotion in those seasons.
That depends on what assumptions you make. If the third placed team on 85 points was six points ahead of the fourth placed team, then 80 points would have been enough for promotion.

However, it is impossible to prove either way, as once teams get promoted or realise they can’t get into the top three, their performances often suffer once they have nothing to play for.
 

Boz

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I've just noticed that it looks like Swindon and Northampton who benefitted from the 'artificial promotion method' last season are in the relegation zone in League One, along with Rochdale who only had 3 more points than Tranmere. Conversely, Cheltenham and Bolton look to be on the way up, hopefully along with Tranmere. Whilst I am hopeful results will go Tranmere's way, realistically it is likely to be playoffs .... again.
I was hoping Wimbledon who also benefitted from the season ending would drop, but that seems unlikely. I am pleased that it looks equally unlikely Accrington will make the play-offs, after some of the comments of their chairman after our demotion.
 
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That depends on what assumptions you make. If the third placed team on 85 points was six points ahead of the fourth placed team, then 80 points would have been enough for promotion.

However, it is impossible to prove either way, as once teams get promoted or realise they can’t get into the top three, their performances often suffer once they have nothing to play for.
I think we have to assume we would have had to at least matched the performance of the team in third place to go up, if we were one of the other 21 teams in the division, otherwise it is in a impossible exercise. Otherwise you are making an arbitrary decision to remove the third placed team from the equation.

With regard to your point relating to teams going easy when a play off place is secured, that would generally result in the points total of the fourth placed team being understated, which works against your argument.

Let's put it this way: our performance under Hill this season is below the standard usually set by the teams that win automatic promotion from League Two.
 
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Boz

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On Nugent, it was a good performance yesterday, but don't think it can just be blamed on tactics that he hasn't really delivered before. He looked a bit better in the Salford game too, so hopefully getting back to full fitness. Interesting decision as to whether we start him v Forest Green. In one of his interviews, said he was hoping to carry on playing, if he continues playing in the same vein as yesterday, possibly worth a deal?

On Keith Hill, I agree with RLC that if he gets us up and wants to stay, then it's right that he remains in charge and with the number of players out of contract, the squad we start next season with will predominantly be his own, though with input from Palios/Beck. I also agree that given the squad available and the decisions taken re forwards in the January window that we've underperformed. Aside from the games v Forest Green & Port Vale at home and away at Southend the quality of football under Keith hasn't been consistently good, this game being a case in point. If we stay down, Keith is appointed, how is that going to impact on season-ticket sales? Think they'll be down anyway for pandemic/refund related factors, but there doesn't seem to be a great deal of love between the fans and manager, from both sides. I'm assuming KH would want to stay, his prickly approach to interviews was something highlighted by fans of his previous clubs.
 

bigmart

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The squad we have should be in the top 3 even with the injuries to Vaughan and Davies. Hill has failed to get the best out if a number of players and his treatment of the likes of Morris has been bizzare, rarely plays him then and him up front only to launch the ball to him.
 

Ian

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The squad we have should be in the top 3 even with the injuries to Vaughan and Davies.
Not sure I agree with that. It has shown over the last few weeks we are effectively a one man team. There is no one to replace Vaughan in that squad, no one to score goals and that has been our problem. The rest of the squad is fine, but you need a goal scorer in it too.

I’m not saying Hill isn’t to blame for some of it but how can you expect to maintain a top three place without a goal scorer ?
 
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Not sure I agree with that. It has shown over the last few weeks we are effectively a one man team. There is no one to replace Vaughan in that squad, no one to score goals and that has been our problem. The rest of the squad is fine, but you need a goal scorer in it too.

I’m not saying Hill isn’t to blame for some of it but how can you expect to maintain a top three place without a goal scorer ?
There are goals elsewhere in the team, but players like Lloyd, Morris, Woolery, Feeney and Lewis have not been utilised effectively in recent weeks.

In addition to which, it was Hill's decision to release three strikers in January and replace them with Nugent and it is that lack of a focal point at the top of the pitch, as much as the absence of Vaughan's goals, that has cost us dearly.

With a fit, natural centre forward in the side, we would have been better balanced and other players would have found it easier to contribute goals.
 
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Too many of them after over 50 years!
Actually , can someone explain what is meant by a top 3 team? It has been mentioned a few times. if it is based on funding, then I understand Tranmere are not in the top 3 in League 2 - in fact Salford are apparently paying almost 3 times Tranmere in terms of wages, so they are really underperforming, if money equates to success. Wouldn't it be boring if whatever it is that purportedly dictates 'top 3, top 6, bottom 3' always happened.

We've seem ' whole greater than the sum of the parts' teams be promoted in our last 4 seasons. Cheltenham this season don't pretend to play like Barcelona but they have players who play their part effectively within the team. Same as Cambridge.




Anyway, on a plus ca change basis, I extracted these from 2019 to 2020 - it begs the question, who would be manager of TR? I think the twitter mob were in full cry that season.

"That was a woeful performance against a team whos confidence must have been at rock bottom before the game, they must be kicking themselves that they didn't win as they really should have done.

Monthe seemed to misjudge the ball for the goal & Ray who should've covered got totally done for pace, they had a free header which should've been a goal then following a Davies howler they came close again where as we created very little in the first half, Perkins shot well wide and CBT having a chance too.

We only really got going in the last 20 minutes when we created some pressure without troubling them too much, a blatant penalty well dispatched to get us level but the draw papered over the cracks, we were 2nd best against a poor side, injuries are having a big impact but we could hardly string 2 passes together."

"i know a few ex players not naming them . as they say mm has not got the brains for lg 1 . im not saying it but his record in lg 2 is very good in lg 1 not so"

"I went to the blackpool game and CTB was a disgrace yet starts yesterday and guess what he was just as bad, I went to the burton game and watched caprice get slaughtered by akins yet starts yesterday I know we have injuries but at some point mellon must see things are not working , is he scared to take chances or to stubborn? at the moment I have little faith he can sign decent players or change things around but hope to be proved wrong"

"I do worry that we are still looking to play long balls up to Payne's head. Even if he is able to win it, there were no players running on to anticipate that which meant we just surrendered possession time and time again.

"it was another game which our lack of discipline was again apparent. Yes, the officials were poor but we cannot keep giving away mindless fouls in dangerous areas and not expect to be punished. The first penalty was very soft but it was a penalty, and the second looked like a tired tackle.

At least we have a nice easy home game up next. Oh wait............"


As for me, I'm too old in the tooth to give a darn what Hill thinks of some 'supporters'. This has been a very strange season with almost every team losing 11 or more games so far. Hard to say whether having fans in would have given the team a spur that turned draws into wins and losses into draws.
 
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We almost certainly have one of the higher budgets in the division this season. However, my judgement that we should have finished in the top three is based on the quality of our squad relative to those of our opponents. Only Bolton have a squad with similar quality and experience to our own.

Without going through a blow by blow account of every squad member, I think you will struggle to find a better spine in this division than Clarke, Spearing and Vaughan (and Vaughan has been available for the majority of the season).

I think this squad is light years ahead of the one Mellon won promotion with two years ago. However, it is ultimately a subjective judgement, and you will either agree or disagree.
 

bigmart

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Not sure I agree with that. It has shown over the last few weeks we are effectively a one man team. There is no one to replace Vaughan in that squad, no one to score goals and that has been our problem. The rest of the squad is fine, but you need a goal scorer in it too.

I’m not saying Hill isn’t to blame for some of it but how can you expect to maintain a top three place without a goal scorer ?
If we played the right way we would get more goals put of the squad than we have done.

We have failed to score in about 17 games this season and that frankly is not good enough regardless of the injury to Vaughan.
 

Sparky

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It will be interesting what happens to Hill if we don’t go up and may well come down to expected recruitment.

I’m sure the likes of Clarke would stay but if we don’t go up there would be question marks at least over Feeney and Woolery staying. Does Palios trust Hill to revamp the squad given our poor January recruitment? Only 5 players are in contract.
It would also depend on who else is out there. Challinor has Hartlepool currently top of the national league I think but no one else I can think of stands out better than Hills record, despite his faults. Plus whether he can go to Rochdale could impact too as he clearly doesn’t feel valued by the SWA

interesting times but I’ll think about that after the plays offs
 

Boz

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On the budget's question no idea where we are in the League table, I'd guess behind Salford, notlob, Mansfield possibly Bradford and maybe one or two others. However squad-wise, Rovers had one of the best sides in this league.
 
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