Champions ?

Who will win the National League in 2017-18 ?

  • Macclesfield

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Aldershot

    Votes: 2 28.6%
  • Wrexham

    Votes: 2 28.6%
  • Tranmere

    Votes: 3 42.9%
  • Sutton

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Borehamwood

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Fylde

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bromley

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Dover

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    7
15 Mar 2010
4,960
368
83
Birkenhead
Player
Jason Koumas
#1
Time to nail our colours to the mast. Who do we think will win the league ?

I thought several weeks ago that Aldershot would win it and I have not changed my mind unfortunately. I really hope I am wrong.
 

Boz

Member
30 Sep 2005
4,424
108
63
Huddersfield
Player
Iain Hume
#6
I'm sitting on the fence for now. The side who probably have the easiest set of fixtures is Sutton, despite the above scoreflash, with their two most difficult games against Wrexham and Aldershot on home plastic. They're also rumoured to be after Michael Cheek, a proven striker at this level.
Aldershot have made good use of their crowd-funding money, look strong, but maybe lacking in depth, if they were to pick up any injuries. Wrexham look like a solid side and with adding firepower in the form of Quigley,are serious contenders. Rovers still in contention for the automatic spot, but think we probably need to win the next three games.
 
15 Mar 2010
4,960
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Birkenhead
Player
Jason Koumas
#7
Sutton drew one all in the end. We drop down to fifth but it could have been worse and puts our result at Barrow in perspective.

Regarding the predictions, Aldershot are the best team I have seen of the other challengers, have an experienced manager and have very strong away form as well as reasonable home form, which is why I went for them. There is no reason why we can't win it however.
 
30 Jun 2008
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#8
As MM keeps saying, quite rightly, we have to keep winning. One game at a time. We need our forwards to keep putting the ball in the net even in one on ones! As Boz says, the next three games are crucial. Our April run in looks quite favourable other than the Aldershot home game. Let us hope that that game still has some relevance at that time.
 
1 Aug 2017
70
12
8
Player
Mungy's Hairdresser
#10
Dull as it sounds, Aldershot were my pre-season favourites ahead of us. Thought we'd probably finish third behind Dagenham thus proving I have fallibility ;)
 

Ian

Super White!
21 Sep 2005
6,386
165
63
Wirral
whitereview.co.uk
Player
Aldo
#11
Aldershot always seem to come good in the second half of the season but I have to vote with my heart. Very tight at the top and don't forget there will be some real 6-pointers coming up for us all between now and the end of the season.

We need to be victorious against The Stags and The Shots is we are serious about this promotion battle.
 
1 Oct 2005
2,594
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Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Player
Alan King, Barry Dyson
#12
I think it will be another "if only" season. Our wretched start to the season will probably cost us dearly. Even Gary Brabin's team managed 20 points from the eleven games before he got the sack. This season we earned only 13 in the same period and those extra seven points would have put us clear at the top. Following our draw at Orient, winning all our remaining 13 games would not match last season's points total. That's how far we have slipped.

The worst was over after 12 games following the home defeat to Wrexham. Since then we've earned 42 points from 21 games, an average of two points per game. Projecting this to the end of the season would see us finish on 81 points, probably enough for the play-offs, possibly enough for third place, but almost certainly not enough for the championship.

You might think that our recent form has been a lot better than our rivals. Surprisingly, this is not true. All the top seven have earned at least 36 points from their last 21 games. Most worryingly, Macclesfield have also earned the same number of points as us in this period.

Macclesfield are four points ahead of us with a game in hand. This effectively means we have to make up seven points on them in 13 games. That's a tall order, but not impossible. But we also have to rely on Aldershot, Wrexham and Sutton all doing worse than us. So I think it will take 87 points to be champions. This means we need an average of just under two and a half points per game. This is equivalent to 10 wins, two draws and just one more defeat.

Financial advisers tell you that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Let's hope they are right and Rovers play even better than present form. That's the only way - realistically - we can win automatic promotion.
 
15 Mar 2010
4,960
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Birkenhead
Player
Jason Koumas
#13
You might think that our recent form has been a lot better than our rivals. Surprisingly, this is not true. All the top seven have earned at least 36 points from their last 21 games. Most worryingly, Macclesfield have also earned the same number of points as us in this period.
Some interesting analysis BBTC, but we are only playing another 13 games, not 21. Our form picked up gradually after the Wrexham defeat and we are in much better shape now than we were at the time of the reverse fixture at Bromley.

In the last ten matches we are second in the form table behind Fylde and have picked up 2 more points than Sutton and Aldershot and 6 more than Wrexham. Macclesfield have matched our points total in that period, but with a small squad and off the field issues, it remains to be seen if they can maintain that form. We have the far stronger squad.

If the form of the last ten games is replicated over the next 13, plus we beat Macclesfield and Aldershot, it is quite likely we will be champions.

With so many teams involved I would not put my house on us finishing first, but statistically there is no reason why we can't win it.
 
30 Jun 2008
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#14
I know I am probably being ridiculous but having a fit Tollit could make all the difference. If that boy fires and stays fit there are not many teams that will match us. Buxton and Davies being fit again will also help. It is all history now but you do wonder whether our injured players would have made a crucial difference at Wembley last May.
 
Likes: Ian
15 Mar 2010
4,960
368
83
Birkenhead
Player
Jason Koumas
#15
On current projections, the champions will end up with 84.8 points from 46 games.

If our target to win the league is 84/85 points, we would need to win 29/30 points from our last 13 games, an average in the best case scenario of 2.2 points per game. In the last ten matches we have averaged 2.1 points per game, so factor in the matches against our rivals where we can directly impact on their points total and you can see that finishing first is still definitely achievable.
 
Likes: Ian
30 Jun 2008
1,190
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48
#16
It will be interesting to see how our rivals cope if they suffer the sort of injury experience that we had last season - if one or two of the smaller squads lose key players......
 
1 Oct 2005
2,594
167
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Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Player
Alan King, Barry Dyson
#17
It is all history now but you do wonder whether our injured players would have made a crucial difference at Wembley last May.
We had eight first team players injured for the final including six midfielders. We badly missed the pace of Vaughan and Tollitt. The midfield was overrun on the day but surely with Wallace, Harris or even Steve Jennings playing it would have been a different story. We did very well to finish the league season so strongly and even reaching Wembley was a real achievement.
 
1 Oct 2005
2,594
167
63
Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Player
Alan King, Barry Dyson
#19
On current projections, the champions will end up with 84.8 points from 46 games.

If our target to win the league is 84/85 points, we would need to win 29/30 points from our last 13 games, an average in the best case scenario of 2.2 points per game. In the last ten matches we have averaged 2.1 points per game, so factor in the matches against our rivals where we can directly impact on their points total and you can see that finishing first is still definitely achievable.
My projection of 87 points was based on Macclesfield continuing to average two points per game. They could do this even if they lose to us.

I have not given up on automatic promotion. All I am saying is that given our current position relative to our main rivals, we have a lot to do. We are certainly not favourites. We are all agreed that we will have to do even better than our points per game over the last 10 or 21 games. That will rely on continued fitness and form of key players including Ben Tollitt. Victories against Mac and Shots would be a great boost, but I doubt we'll win both games. I think the team spirit is there. The system(s) used are generally effective. The SWA is now a virtual twelfth man in every game. As I said earlier, if we can put our rivals under pressure, they are likely to crack.
 
15 Mar 2010
4,960
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Birkenhead
Player
Jason Koumas
#20
My projection of 87 points was based on Macclesfield continuing to average two points per game. They could do this even if they lose to us.
It is more logical to look at their points average over the whole season to date, rather than assuming they will average two points per game. You then arrive at a points total of 84/85.

We only have to do marginally better than we have in the last ten games, and that is assuming that our rivals can maintain their current levels of performance. As all of them have smaller and weaker squads than us, it is doubtful whether they will.

All of that said, my gut instinct is that Aldershot will just beat us to the title. The Shots and ourselves are by far the best two teams I have seen this season.